Hungarian election down to wire
By Judy Dempsey International Herald Tribune

MONDAY, APRIL 10, 2006
 

BERLIN With early exit polls showing an election going down to the wire, Hungary's Socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, was neck and neck on Sunday with his conservative rival, Viktor Orban, in the first parliamentary vote since the country joined the European Union nearly two years ago.

A partial exit poll released shortly after voting ended at 7 p.m. indicated a narrow victory for the opposition, The Associated Press reported, but two earlier polls suggested that the governing Socialists would win. A third poll, by Gallup, supported the prediction of a narrow opposition victory, the AP reported.

Whoever wins, the next government faces an uphill battle in dealing with a budget deficit, a weak currency and a widening trade deficit. The budget deficit could reach 8 percent of gross domestic product by the end of this year. The currency, the forint, has declined 5.6 percent against the euro this year.

The EU, Hungary's central bank and credit-rating agencies have criticized Gyurcsany - a wealthy, 44-year-old businessman who became prime minister in 2004 after a corruption and spy scandal forced his predecessor, Peter Medgyessy, to resign - for failing to rein in the deficit.

Gyurcsany and the 42-year-old Orban, prime minister from 1998 to 2002, both campaigned on big spending plans. Gyurcsany pledged to spend the equivalent of $46 billion over the next 10 years. The money, much of it from the EU, would be used to build schools, hospitals and roads. Orban promised to cut social security contributions and increase pensions, moves he hoped to finance through greater economic growth. The economy grew 4.3 percent during the last quarter of 2005.

The two leaders, each battling to become the first post-Communist prime minister to serve a second term, hold different attitudes toward globalization. Gyurcsany, whose party benefited from the early years of privatization because of its Communist contacts, favors public-private partnerships and foreign investments. Last month, during the visit to Budapest by President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Gyurscany supported much closer cooperation in the energy sector, particularly gas.

Orban, who has criticized what he calls "wild capitalism," adopted a more cautious if not protectionist position aimed at helping Hungarian businesses.

According to two exit poll projections after the first round of voting on Sunday conducted by the polling institutes Tarki and Four Sense-Szazadveg, Gyurcsany and his coalition partners, the liberal Free Democrats, had a combined lead over the main conservative opposition Fidesz party.

The Socialist Party won 40.2 percent of the vote and its coalition partners, the Free Democrats, 6.4 percent, according to the exit polls. Fidesz won 43.6 percent, but its coalition partner, the Hungarian Democratic Forum polled 5 percent, the minimum required to enter the Parliament, exit polls showed.

Fidesz appeared to have won most votes in the first round, according to the Tarki Institute, using projections from 24 out of 176 constituencies. It showed the conservatives winning 45 percent of the vote followed by the ruling Socialists with 43 percent.

The exit polls reflect two complicated voting systems: proportional representation in which every vote counts; and a simple majority vote in which just one candidate gets elected. Under such a system, one party could gain the most votes in some districts but another party could win the most seats.

Such results could make Sunday's election, the first of two rounds in this Central European country of 10 million people, inconclusive, with the second round taking place on April 23.

Run-offs will take place in those constituencies where 50 percent of the electorate failed to vote. A 25 percent turnout is required in the second round. Over 48 percent of the eight million eligible voters had cast their ballots by 3 p.m. on Sunday.

BERLIN With early exit polls showing an election going down to the wire, Hungary's Socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, was neck and neck on Sunday with his conservative rival, Viktor Orban, in the first parliamentary vote since the country joined the European Union nearly two years ago.

A partial exit poll released shortly after voting ended at 7 p.m. indicated a narrow victory for the opposition, The Associated Press reported, but two earlier polls suggested that the governing Socialists would win. A third poll, by Gallup, supported the prediction of a narrow opposition victory, the AP reported.

Whoever wins, the next government faces an uphill battle in dealing with a budget deficit, a weak currency and a widening trade deficit. The budget deficit could reach 8 percent of gross domestic product by the end of this year. The currency, the forint, has declined 5.6 percent against the euro this year.

The EU, Hungary's central bank and credit-rating agencies have criticized Gyurcsany - a wealthy, 44-year-old businessman who became prime minister in 2004 after a corruption and spy scandal forced his predecessor, Peter Medgyessy, to resign - for failing to rein in the deficit.

Gyurcsany and the 42-year-old Orban, prime minister from 1998 to 2002, both campaigned on big spending plans. Gyurcsany pledged to spend the equivalent of $46 billion over the next 10 years. The money, much of it from the EU, would be used to build schools, hospitals and roads. Orban promised to cut social security contributions and increase pensions, moves he hoped to finance through greater economic growth. The economy grew 4.3 percent during the last quarter of 2005.

The two leaders, each battling to become the first post-Communist prime minister to serve a second term, hold different attitudes toward globalization. Gyurcsany, whose party benefited from the early years of privatization because of its Communist contacts, favors public-private partnerships and foreign investments. Last month, during the visit to Budapest by President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Gyurscany supported much closer cooperation in the energy sector, particularly gas.

Orban, who has criticized what he calls "wild capitalism," adopted a more cautious if not protectionist position aimed at helping Hungarian businesses.

According to two exit poll projections after the first round of voting on Sunday conducted by the polling institutes Tarki and Four Sense-Szazadveg, Gyurcsany and his coalition partners, the liberal Free Democrats, had a combined lead over the main conservative opposition Fidesz party.

The Socialist Party won 40.2 percent of the vote and its coalition partners, the Free Democrats, 6.4 percent, according to the exit polls. Fidesz won 43.6 percent, but its coalition partner, the Hungarian Democratic Forum polled 5 percent, the minimum required to enter the Parliament, exit polls showed.

Fidesz appeared to have won most votes in the first round, according to the Tarki Institute, using projections from 24 out of 176 constituencies. It showed the conservatives winning 45 percent of the vote followed by the ruling Socialists with 43 percent.

The exit polls reflect two complicated voting systems: proportional representation in which every vote counts; and a simple majority vote in which just one candidate gets elected. Under such a system, one party could gain the most votes in some districts but another party could win the most seats.

Such results could make Sunday's election, the first of two rounds in this Central European country of 10 million people, inconclusive, with the second round taking place on April 23.

Run-offs will take place in those constituencies where 50 percent of the electorate failed to vote. A 25 percent turnout is required in the second round. Over 48 percent of the eight million eligible voters had cast their ballots by 3 p.m. on Sunday.

BERLIN With early exit polls showing an election going down to the wire, Hungary's Socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, was neck and neck on Sunday with his conservative rival, Viktor Orban, in the first parliamentary vote since the country joined the European Union nearly two years ago.

A partial exit poll released shortly after voting ended at 7 p.m. indicated a narrow victory for the opposition, The Associated Press reported, but two earlier polls suggested that the governing Socialists would win. A third poll, by Gallup, supported the prediction of a narrow opposition victory, the AP reported.

Whoever wins, the next government faces an uphill battle in dealing with a budget deficit, a weak currency and a widening trade deficit. The budget deficit could reach 8 percent of gross domestic product by the end of this year. The currency, the forint, has declined 5.6 percent against the euro this year.

The EU, Hungary's central bank and credit-rating agencies have criticized Gyurcsany - a wealthy, 44-year-old businessman who became prime minister in 2004 after a corruption and spy scandal forced his predecessor, Peter Medgyessy, to resign - for failing to rein in the deficit.

Gyurcsany and the 42-year-old Orban, prime minister from 1998 to 2002, both campaigned on big spending plans. Gyurcsany pledged to spend the equivalent of $46 billion over the next 10 years. The money, much of it from the EU, would be used to build schools, hospitals and roads. Orban promised to cut social security contributions and increase pensions, moves he hoped to finance through greater economic growth. The economy grew 4.3 percent during the last quarter of 2005.

The two leaders, each battling to become the first post-Communist prime minister to serve a second term, hold different attitudes toward globalization. Gyurcsany, whose party benefited from the early years of privatization because of its Communist contacts, favors public-private partnerships and foreign investments. Last month, during the visit to Budapest by President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Gyurscany supported much closer cooperation in the energy sector, particularly gas.

Orban, who has criticized what he calls "wild capitalism," adopted a more cautious if not protectionist position aimed at helping Hungarian businesses.

According to two exit poll projections after the first round of voting on Sunday conducted by the polling institutes Tarki and Four Sense-Szazadveg, Gyurcsany and his coalition partners, the liberal Free Democrats, had a combined lead over the main conservative opposition Fidesz party.

The Socialist Party won 40.2 percent of the vote and its coalition partners, the Free Democrats, 6.4 percent, according to the exit polls. Fidesz won 43.6 percent, but its coalition partner, the Hungarian Democratic Forum polled 5 percent, the minimum required to enter the Parliament, exit polls showed.

Fidesz appeared to have won most votes in the first round, according to the Tarki Institute, using projections from 24 out of 176 constituencies. It showed the conservatives winning 45 percent of the vote followed by the ruling Socialists with 43 percent.

The exit polls reflect two complicated voting systems: proportional representation in which every votecounts; and a simple majority vote in which just one candidate gets elected. Under such a system, one party could gain the most votes in some districts but another party could win the most seats.

Such results could make Sunday's election, the first of two rounds in this Central European country of 10 million people, inconclusive, with the second round taking place on April 23.

Run-offs will take place in those constituencies where 50 percent of the electorate failed to vote. A 25 percent turnout is required in the second round. Over 48 percent of the eight million eligible voters had cast their ballots by 3 p.m. on Sunday.

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